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AARP Poll: In Tight Michigan Senate Race, Rogers and El-Sayed Are Nearly Tied
Concerns about Social Security and affordability weigh on Michiganders 50-plus
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Key takeaways
- Older Michigan voters favor Mike Rogers over Abdul El-Sayed in the Senate race, even though the contest is nearly tied among all likely voters.
- Voters age 50-plus are highly motivated to vote, and many say Social Security and rising prices will influence their choices.
- Older swing voters are not aligned with one party and could play a decisive role in both Michigan’s Senate and gubernatorial races.
- Read the full poll results here.
Two political races in Michigan illustrate the potential for older voters to sway results, according to a new AARP poll.
After a contentious Democratic primary, Abdul El-Sayed is edging out his Republican opponent Mike Rogers, in the race for a U.S. Senate seat by one point among all likely voters, according to the AARP poll released on Aug. 20. But among those 50-plus, former Congressman Rogers has a more comfortable lead: 52 percent of older voters favor him, compared with 43 percent who prefer El-Sayed, an epidemiologist. When drilling down into older swing voters specifically — the segment of the Michigan electorate who are not straight-ticket Republican or Democratic voters — Rogers enjoys an even wider advantage, leading El-Sayed by 33 points.
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The picture is a little different in the Michigan gubernatorial race. Forty-nine percent of all likely voters would choose Democrat Jocelyn Benson, Michigan’s current Secretary of State, compared with the 44 percent who prefer Republican House Rep. John James. Among voters 50-plus, James pulls ahead of Benson, but only by one point. And in this race, older swing voters are in Benson’s camp, giving her a 28-point lead over James.
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That all suggests that older voters, especially the 14 percent who are not straight-ticket voters, could decide the outcome for candidates in the November midterms. This bloc is more likely to vote, and in larger numbers than other generations.
In Michigan, 86 percent of voters 50-plus describe themselves as “extremely” motivated to vote, compared with 71 percent of those younger than 50. That means political candidates should pay attention to concerns about rising prices, Social Security and Medicare — all key considerations for older voters in the Great Lakes State as they weigh their options.
“Costs are rising, and older adults are concerned,” says Paula Cunningham, state director of AARP Michigan. “They are looking for candidates who speak directly to their issues.”
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Pollsters interviewed 877 likely Michigan voters about the Senate and gubernatorial races and the issues inspiring them to vote. The bipartisan polling team of Republican firm Fabrizio Ward and Democratic firm Impact Research conducted the AARP-commissioned poll from August 9 to August 11. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.3 percent.
Older swing voters’ tilt toward Rogers could spell trouble for El-Sayed in the Senate race, even though 91 percent of the Democratic base support him — a number that is stronger than expected, says Matt Hogan, a partner at Impact Research, considering the bruising Democratic primary where the party establishment rallied around El-Sayed’s more centrist opponent, Haley Stevens. Despite the enthusiasm El-Sayed has garnered among voters under 50, their motivation to cast a ballot is lower, “so there is a bit of a silver lining for Republicans,” says Bob Ward, a partner at Fabrizio Ward.
One factor that could help Democrats is general pessimism among the Michigan electorate about the state of the country. Only one-third of voters believe the U.S. is heading in the right direction, while more voters disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance than approve, even among older voters. When the polling team asked Michigan voters in 2024 how they felt about Trump’s first term, his net approval rating was positive by two points.
AARP (Getty Images)
Older Michigan voters rely on Social Security
This year’s midterm elections, which take place halfway through a four-year presidential term, could shift the balance of power in Congress. Lawmakers elected this year will make decisions on whether Social Security remains strong, whether family caregivers get more help and other issues that affect the pocketbooks of older Americans.
Control of Congress is also at stake, with all 435 U.S. House seats and 35 U.S. Senate seats on the ballot. There are currently 218 Republicans and 212 Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives, as well as one independent and four vacancies. There are 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two independents in the Senate.
Older voters heavily influence the direction of elections. In every national election since 2002, people 65 and older have cast ballots at higher rates than their younger counterparts. That particularly matters in a midterm year, which draws a lower turnout across the board compared with presidential election years.
Social Security is one issue that cuts across political lines. Half of voters ages 50 to 64, and nearly 70 percent of voters age 65 and older, say Social Security is or will be a major part of their income.
“Twenty years ago, Social Security was more a Democratic issue,” Ward says. “It is an issue that affects everyone. Republicans don’t always talk about Social Security, but their voters want to hear what they are going to do.”
When asked about key matters that will decide their vote, Social Security topped the list, with 86 percent of older respondents naming it a very or somewhat important issue. Rising prices for everyday essentials and the cost of health care followed, with 78 percent of older respondents ranking it very or somewhat important. When asked about issues that would make them more or less likely to vote for a candidate, 93 percent of older voters said they would support a candidate who advocated for workers getting the full Social Security payments they earned.
Tactics to tamp down rising prices
Capturing the swing vote is one promising road to victory in Michigan. The 61-point gap between these voters’ support for a Republican in the Senate race and a Democrat in the gubernatorial race “really highlights the importance of swing voters 50-plus,” says Hogan. It is the biggest gulf he and Ward have seen yet among this segment in their 2026 polls for AARP.
“We’re a diverse state,” Cunningham says. “We’re not a monolith in terms of one type of people or industry.”
To win their vote, candidates must recognize that pocketbook issues are one of swing voters’ top concerns. About two-thirds of this population are worried about their personal financial situation, well above the 54 percent of all likely voters who express the same concerns.
The biggest headache for consumers burdened by rising prices is the cost of groceries, which is the top concern across all major demographic groups. “It’s not the big purchases, it’s going to the store every week that is causing people anxiety,” Ward says. The costs of health care and gasoline also rank high.
Candidates who want to appeal to Michigan voters can focus on policies that could make life more affordable. For example, there is broad bipartisan support for changes to zoning laws that would make it easier for homeowners to build accessory dwelling units, or ADUs, to help address affordable housing shortages. (ADUs are self-contained living spaces that typically share the property with a single-family residence.) Three-quarters of older Michigan voters say they support laws that would require communities to permit more ADUs.
More than 6 in 10 older Michigan voters also want their elected leaders to rein in data centers, which consume massive amounts of energy to power computer systems and are raising alarms across the country that utility rates will rise or consumers will end up covering the infrastructure needed to serve them.
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AARP is a nonpartisan organization that never supports or opposes candidates for office. We believe the right to vote is fundamental, and we advocate for policies ensuring that Americans 50 and older can exercise that right without unnecessary barriers. Here’s what you can do to help:
- Learn more about voting in your state this year.
- Pledge to vote for candidates in 2026 who will protect and strengthen Social Security and support family caregivers.
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- AARP is your fierce defender on issues that matter to people 50-plus. Become a member or renew your membership today.
The key takeaways were created with the assistance of generative AI. An AARP editor reviewed and refined the content for accuracy and clarity.
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